Posted by
JDComments on Tuesday, December 26, 2006 10:04:32 AM
According to a report from the National Academy of Sciences [see
article from the Washington Times], Iran's oil revenues are dropping drastically as its oil production falls and its inept management and policies are preventing the improvements necessary to reverse this situation, all of which could lead to instability and internal changes favorable to the West.
The problem is not their reserves, which are huge, but rather their resistance to foreign assistance in developing it, and their failure to improve their facilities themselves. Like in so many countries that are essentially one commodity economies, Iran's oil is both a curse and a blessing; while providing tremendous revenues, it fosters dependence and policies which are short sighted and encourages spending as opposed to investment , which is self defeating.
This information just further confirms that real sanctions, not those ridiculous restrictions on the six guys who have been identified as working on their nuclear program, might indeed be effective in changing Iran's behavior, both in regard to their weapons, and their support of Islamic radicalism . Recent protests by the students of the country clearly indicate the populace is becoming disenchanted with their fanatical president, and tough financial strictures may just be the formula for inciting regime change. However given the nature of the UN, this hope may be nothing more than a daydream.
Nonetheless, this report is still hopeful , and perhaps what the International community cannot achieve, the Iranian government's stupidity will accomplish for us. The problem is this could take a few years, and so become a race between nuclear development and the collapse of their oil industry, a game of chicken we may not have the luxury of playing to the end but which may be enough to get the Iranian people to face reality and force their government to worry about them and not the return of the thirteenth Iman. Imminent poverty has a funny way of rearranging one's priorities.